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Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Pogradeci
Pogradeci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
2/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pogradeci55%
×Draw25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogradeci
1.57
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.82

Pogradeci creates 91% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pogradeci
1.68
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Pogradeci
0.79
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Pogradeci+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogradeci ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pogradeci or draw
80%
Pogradeci or Besëlidhja Lezhë
75%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
45%

Winning margin

Pogradeci wins by 2+
29%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogradeci 1+ goals
79%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
46%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
21%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
56%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
20%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pogradeci (draw refunded)
74%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogradeci at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 72 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogradeci attack 1.68 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Pogradeci defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pogradeci scores more
55%
level
25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
20%

Pogradeci at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Pogradeci 1–0 Besëlidhja Lezhë

Pogradeci beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 1-0 in 1st Division on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Gjorgji Kyçyku in Pogradec.