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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Pogradeci — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhëadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pogradeci
Pogradeci
7/29/20201st Division1st Division · Promotion Play-offs - FinalElbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë44%
×Draw25%
Pogradeci31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.50
Pogradeci
1.22

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 23% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Pogradeci
1.15

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Pogradeci
1.41

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Pogradeci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
69%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Pogradeci
75%
Draw or Pogradeci
56%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
21%
Pogradeci wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
78%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
44%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
19%
Pogradeci 1+ goals
70%
Pogradeci 2+ goals
34%
Pogradeci 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
59%
Pogradeci (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
44%
level
25%
Pogradeci scores more
31%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 3–2 Pogradeci

Besëlidhja Lezhë beat Pogradeci 3-2 in 1st Division on July 29, 2020.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.