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Pogon Tczew W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
5/30/2026Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogon Tczew W14%
×Draw16%
Górnik Łęczna W69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Tczew W
1.15
Górnik Łęczna W
2.68

Górnik Łęczna W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W
1.12
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W
2.97
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw
31%
Pogon Tczew W or Górnik Łęczna W
84%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
86%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
5%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
68%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
32%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
11%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
93%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
74%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
17%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more
14%
level
16%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
69%

Górnik Łęczna W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Tczew W vs Górnik Łęczna W

Górnik Łęczna W beat Pogon Tczew W 5-0 in Ekstraliga Women on May 30, 2026.