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Górnik Łęczna W vs Pogon Tczew W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
11/8/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 11Stadion UKS SMS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Górnik Łęczna W68%
×Draw18%
Pogon Tczew W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna W
2.27
Pogon Tczew W
0.90

Górnik Łęczna W creates 152% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna W
1.72
Pogon Tczew W
0.88

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna W
0.91
Pogon Tczew W
2.81

finishing

Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par
Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna W ↓

Pogon Tczew W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna W or draw
86%
Górnik Łęczna W or Pogon Tczew W
82%
Draw or Pogon Tczew W
32%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
45%
Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
90%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
66%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
39%
Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
59%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
23%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
83%
Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna W at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Pogon Tczew W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna W attack 1.72 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.27

Pogon Tczew W attack 0.88 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Górnik Łęczna W scores more
68%
level
18%
Pogon Tczew W scores more
14%

Górnik Łęczna W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Łęczna W vs Pogon Tczew W

Górnik Łęczna W beat Pogon Tczew W 3-1 in Ekstraliga Women on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion UKS SMS in Łódź.