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Pogon Szczecin W vs Medyk Konin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
11/4/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 9Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pogon Szczecin W82%
×Draw12%
Medyk Konin W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin W
2.98
Medyk Konin W
0.74

Pogon Szczecin W creates 303% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin W
2.88
Medyk Konin W
0.55

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin W
0.94
Medyk Konin W
3.09

finishing

Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par
Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin W ↓

Medyk Konin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin W or draw
94%
Pogon Szczecin W or Medyk Konin W
88%
Draw or Medyk Konin W
18%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
62%
Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
95%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
79%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
56%
Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
52%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
17%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
93%
Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.88 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.98

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Pogon Szczecin W scores more
82%
level
12%
Medyk Konin W scores more
6%

Pogon Szczecin W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Pogon Szczecin W 5–0 Medyk Konin W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Medyk Konin W 5-0 in Ekstraliga Women on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.