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Medyk Konin W vs Pogon Szczecin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Medyk Konin W
Medyk Konin W
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
5/11/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 20Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W15%
×Draw17%
Pogon Szczecin W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medyk Konin W
1.18
Pogon Szczecin W
2.65

Pogon Szczecin W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Medyk Konin W
1.64
Pogon Szczecin W
2.66

allows per match

Medyk Konin W
2.64
Pogon Szczecin W
0.72

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

Pogon Szczecin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw
32%
Medyk Konin W or Pogon Szczecin W
83%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin W
85%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+
6%
Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals
69%
Medyk Konin W 2+ goals
33%
Medyk Konin W 3+ goals
12%
Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
93%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
74%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)
18%
Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Pogon Szczecin W away — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.18

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.66 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more
15%
level
17%
Pogon Szczecin W scores more
68%

Pogon Szczecin W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Medyk Konin W 1–5 Pogon Szczecin W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Medyk Konin W 5-1 in Ekstraliga Women on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.