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Pogon Szczecin W vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
5/25/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 22Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pogon Szczecin W68%
×Draw18%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin W
2.42
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.03

Pogon Szczecin W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin W
2.88
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.13

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin W
0.94
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.97

finishing

Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par
Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin W ↓

Akademia Piłkarska LG W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin W or draw
85%
Pogon Szczecin W or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
82%
Draw or Akademia Piłkarska LG W
32%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
45%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
91%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
69%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
43%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
64%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
28%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
82%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.88 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.42

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.13 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pogon Szczecin W scores more
68%
level
18%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
15%

Pogon Szczecin W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin W vs Akademia Piłkarska LG W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.