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Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Pogon Szczecin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
11/10/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 11Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W19%
×Draw21%
Pogon Szczecin W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.02
Pogon Szczecin W
2.01

Pogon Szczecin W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
Pogon Szczecin W
2.66

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
Pogon Szczecin W
0.72

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

Pogon Szczecin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
40%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or Pogon Szczecin W
79%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin W
81%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
7%
Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
64%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
27%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
8%
Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
87%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
59%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
24%
Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Pogon Szczecin W away — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.66 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
19%
level
21%
Pogon Szczecin W scores more
60%

Pogon Szczecin W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Pogon Szczecin W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3-2 in Ekstraliga Women on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.