Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Pogon Szczecin

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Motor Lublin

E. Koulouris 76'

K. Grosicki 52', 43'

5/14/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Pogon Szczecin53%

×Draw22%

Motor Lublin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon SzczecinExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.28

Pogon Szczecin

1.95

Motor Lublin

1.28

Pogon Szczecin creates 52% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

2.10

creates per match

1.34

1.22

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin

2.10

Motor Lublin

1.34

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.22

Motor Lublin

1.80

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.06on par

Motor Lublin+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw

75%

Pogon Szczecin or Motor Lublin

78%

Draw or Motor Lublin

47%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

30%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

86%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

58%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

31%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

72%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

37%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

68%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.10 + Motor Lublin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.95

Motor Lublin attack 1.34 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more

53%

level

22%

Motor Lublin scores more

25%

Pogon Szczecin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Grosicki

Pogon Szczecin · M

9.6

Match Events

20'

25'

37'

41'

43'

K. Grosicki↳ L. Koútris

52'

K. Grosicki↳ L. Koútris

63'

M. Wędrychowski← F. Ulvestad

69'

C. Simon← M. Scalet

70'

Sergi Samper← J. Łabojko

70'

B. van Hoeven← M. Król

74'

K. Smoliński← K. Grosicki

74'

K. Łukasiak← A. Przyborek

76'

E. Koulouris↳ K. Łukasiak

80'

A. Klukowski← R. Kurzawa

80'

P. Paryzek← E. Koulouris

84'

Bradly van Hoeven

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PogonMotor

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots13

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.29

7Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots13

8On Target1

1Off Target5

6Blocked7

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

445Total Passes362

356Accurate Passes291

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2