Motor Lublin 4–2 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Motor Lublin

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Pogon Szczecin

M. N'Diaye 75'

M. Król 38', 8'

S. Mráz 28'

V. Bichakhchyan 63'

K. Grosicki 37'

11/2/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Motor Lublin39%

×Draw25%

Pogon Szczecin37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor LublinExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Motor Lublin

1.50

Pogon Szczecin

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.52

creates per match

1.30

1.63

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Motor Lublin

1.52

Pogon Szczecin

1.30

allows per match

Motor Lublin

1.63

Pogon Szczecin

1.49

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Motor Lublin-0.06on par

Pogon Szczecin-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw

63%

Motor Lublin or Pogon Szczecin

75%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

61%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

19%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

78%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

44%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

19%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

77%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

43%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

51%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.52 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 + Motor Lublin defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Motor Lublin scores more

39%

level

25%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

37%

Motor Lublin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Król

Motor Lublin · F

8.6

Match Events

8'

M. Król↳ S. Mráz

23'

Léo Borges

28'

S. Mráz↳ P. Stolarski

31'

Sergi Samper

37'

K. Grosicki↳ Léo Borges

38'

M. Król

41'

Christopher Simon

46'

M. Scalet← C. Simon

46'

V. Bichakhchyan← D. Keramitsis

46'

R. Kurzawa← João Gamboa

48'

Paweł Stolarski

63'

V. Bichakhchyan

64'

K. Wełniak← S. Mráz

64'

F. Wójcik← P. Stolarski

65'

Kamil Grosicki

73'

M. N'Diaye← M. Król

73'

A. Przyborek← K. Łukasiak

73'

J. Lis← L. Koútris

75'

M. N'Diaye↳ M. Scalet

80'

A. Gorgon← F. Ulvestad

84'

K. Palacz← F. Luberecki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MotorPogon

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots19

2Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots19

5On Target8

4Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box11

Passing

38%Possession62%

371Total Passes604

301Accurate Passes526

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1