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Pogon Szczecin vs Linfield — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Linfield
Linfield
8/3/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pogon Szczecin60%
×Draw23%
Linfield17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.80
Linfield
0.85

Pogon Szczecin creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
2.00
Linfield
0.70

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.00
Linfield
1.60

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par
Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Linfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
83%
Pogon Szczecin or Linfield
77%
Draw or Linfield
40%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
34%
Linfield wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
83%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
54%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
27%
Linfield 1+ goals
57%
Linfield 2+ goals
21%
Linfield 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
77%
Linfield (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Linfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.00 + Linfield defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Linfield attack 0.70 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
60%
level
23%
Linfield scores more
17%

Pogon Szczecin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin vs Linfield

Pogon Szczecin beat Linfield 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.