Linfield 2–5 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Linfield

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Pogon Szczecin

7/27/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linfield61%

×Draw19%

Pogon Szczecin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.28

Linfield

2.35

Pogon Szczecin

1.28

Linfield creates 84% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.11

creates per match

1.00

1.56

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Linfield

2.11

Pogon Szczecin

1.00

allows per match

Linfield

1.56

Pogon Szczecin

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

80%

Linfield or Pogon Szczecin

81%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

39%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

39%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

90%

Linfield 2+ goals

68%

Linfield 3+ goals

41%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

72%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

37%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

75%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 2.11 + Pogon Szczecin defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.35

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 + Linfield defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Linfield scores more

61%

level

19%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

20%

Linfield at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff