Pogon Szczecin 3–3 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Pogon Szczecin

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Lechia Gdansk

E. Koulouris 72'

F. Ulvestad 45'

E. Olsson 32' (OG)

M. Głogowski 90'

I. Zhelizko 39'

K. Sezonienko 6'

5/17/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 33Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Pogon Szczecin49%

×Draw22%

Lechia Gdansk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon SzczecinExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.42

Pogon Szczecin

1.93

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

Pogon Szczecin creates 36% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

2.10

creates per match

1.62

1.22

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin

2.10

Lechia Gdansk

1.62

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.22

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.06on par

Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw

72%

Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk

78%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

51%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

28%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

85%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

57%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

30%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

41%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

63%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.10 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more

49%

level

22%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

28%

Pogon Szczecin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Kapič

Lechia Gdansk · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

K. Sezonienko↳ R. Kapič

31'

Linus Wahlqvist

32'

E. OlssonOwn goal

39'

I. Zhelizko↳ C. Mena

45'

F. Ulvestad↳ A. Przyborek

46'

K. Smoliński← R. Kurzawa

54'

Adrian Przyborek

55'

K. Łukasiak← João Gamboa

65'

68'

68'

69'

72'

E. Koulouris↳ K. Grosicki

82'

M. Głogowski← K. Sezonienko

82'

T. Wójtowicz← C. Mena

83'

K. Wendt← B. Viunnyk

83'

A. Tsarenko← M. Khlan

88'

J. Lis← A. Przyborek

90+6'

A. Klukowski← K. Grosicki

90+6'

W. Lisowski← L. Koútris

90'

M. Głogowski↳ R. Kapič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PogonLechia

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots11

1.19Expected Goals (xG)1.14

6Corners4

8Fouls4

Shots

17Total Shots11

3On Target5

9Off Target3

5Blocked3

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

362Total Passes479

285Accurate Passes402

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls4

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1