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Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
T. Neugebauer 54'
B. Pllana 11'
P. Mukairu 37'
3/21/2026EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 26Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk39%
×Draw24%
Pogon Szczecin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.52
Pogon Szczecin
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.59
Pogon Szczecin
1.36

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.53
Pogon Szczecin
1.45

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par
Pogon Szczecin-0.28scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Pogon Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
64%
Lechia Gdansk or Pogon Szczecin
76%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin
61%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
19%
Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
78%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
45%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
20%
Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
77%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
42%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
52%
Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.36 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
39%
level
24%
Pogon Szczecin scores more
36%

Lechia Gdansk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. CirkovicLechia GdanskLechia Gdansk · M
9.2

Match Events

11'
B. Pllana↳ I. Zhelizko
37'
P. Mukairu↳ F. Ulvestad
43'
Matúš Vojtko
54'
T. Neugebauer↳ A. Cirkovic
62'
K. Grosicki← N. Lawa
62'
K. Angielski← F. Cuic
62'
J. Pozo← K. Acosta
65'
D. Kurminowski← T. Wojtowicz
70'
S. Greenwood← M. Agger
72'
B. Viunnyk← T. Neugebauer
78'
L. Koutris← D. Loncar
90+2'
M. Glogowski← A. Cirkovic

Possession

40%Lechia

Shots

15Lechia

Pass accuracy

48%Lechia

Statistics

LechiaPogon
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots18
2.68Expected Goals (xG)1.53
7Corners9
10Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots18
7On Target7
5Off Target1
3Blocked10
9Inside Box11
6Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
298Total Passes454
213Accurate Passes352
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
-0.33Goals Prevented-0.33
Discipline
10Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides4

Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Pogon Szczecin

Lechia Gdansk beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 21, 2026.

Goals: B. Pllana (11'), P. Mukairu (37'), T. Neugebauer (54').

Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdansk.