Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
M. Kucharczyk 69'
3/19/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Pogon Szczecin50%
×Draw22%
Lechia Gdansk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.93
Lechia Gdansk
1.39

Pogon Szczecin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
2.04
Lechia Gdansk
1.48

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.29
Lechia Gdansk
1.81

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.04on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
72%
Pogon Szczecin or Lechia Gdansk
78%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
50%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
28%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
85%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
57%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
30%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
75%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
40%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
64%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.29 · 26 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.04 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
50%
level
22%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
28%

Pogon Szczecin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
K. Saief← R. Pietrzak
65'
L. Zahovič← A. Gorgon
65'
K. Kozłowski← A. Benedyczak
69'
M. Kucharczyk↳ K. Kozłowski
71'
K. Drygas← R. Kurzawa
74'
Kenny Saief
80'
Dante Stipica
81'
Jarosław Kubicki
81'
Ž. Udovičić← J. Kubicki
83'
A. Frączczak← M. Kucharczyk
84'
Łukasz Zwoliński

Possession

61%Pogon

Shots

14Pogon

Statistics

PogonLechia
Overview
61%Possession39%
14Total Shots7
5Corners3
6Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots7
7On Target3
7Off Target4
Passing
61%Possession39%
Goalkeeping
8Saves10
Discipline
6Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin vs Lechia Gdansk

Pogon Szczecin beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Kucharczyk (69').

Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.