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Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa 2025

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
E. Koulouris 87', 49', 45+6' (pen)
F. Ulvestad 82'
4/6/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 27Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Pogon Szczecin52%
×Draw22%
GKS Katowice26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.96
GKS Katowice
1.32

Pogon Szczecin creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
2.17
GKS Katowice
1.15

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.50
GKS Katowice
1.74

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.09on par
GKS Katowice-0.20scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

GKS Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
74%
Pogon Szczecin or GKS Katowice
78%
Draw or GKS Katowice
48%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
30%
GKS Katowice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
86%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
58%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
31%
GKS Katowice 1+ goals
73%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
38%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
67%
GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 13 matches

GKS Katowice away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.17 + GKS Katowice defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.96

GKS Katowice attack 1.15 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
52%
level
22%
GKS Katowice scores more
26%

Pogon Szczecin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. KoulourisPogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin · F
9.7

Match Events

28'
Mateusz Kowalczyk
45+4'
Leonardo KoutrisPenalty confirmed
45+6'
E. KoulourisPenalty
46'
M. Wędrychowski← A. Przyborek
49'
E. Koulouris↳ K. Grosicki
62'
Borja Galán← K. Gruszkowski
62'
S. Bergier← F. Szymczak
62'
A. Błąd← D. Drachal
80'
A. Komor← M. Kuusk
81'
K. Łukasiak← R. Kurzawa
81'
K. Smoliński← K. Grosicki
82'
F. Ulvestad↳ K. Łukasiak
86'
J. Lis← L. Koútris
87'
E. Koulouris↳ K. Łukasiak
88'
P. Paryzek← E. Koulouris
88'
M. Marzec← B. Nowak

Possession

50%Pogon

Shots

18Pogon

Pass accuracy

51%Pogon

Statistics

PogonGKS
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots10
2.92Expected Goals (xG)1.36
6Corners4
6Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots10
8On Target0
5Off Target5
5Blocked5
15Inside Box9
3Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
396Total Passes383
303Accurate Passes289
77%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Pogon Szczecin vs GKS Katowice

Pogon Szczecin beat GKS Katowice 4-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 6, 2025.

Goals: E. Koulouris (45+6' pen, 49', 87'), F. Ulvestad (82').

Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.