Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa 2025

GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
M. Marzec 90+6'
S. Bergier 90'
A. Jędrych 33'
A. Gorgon 90+3'
9/27/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 10Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

GKS Katowice35%
×Draw25%
Pogon Szczecin40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice
1.42
Pogon Szczecin
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice
1.39
Pogon Szczecin
1.23

allows per match

GKS Katowice
1.82
Pogon Szczecin
1.45

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.46scores more
Pogon Szczecin-0.36scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Pogon Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw
60%
GKS Katowice or Pogon Szczecin
75%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin
65%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+
16%
Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals
76%
GKS Katowice 2+ goals
41%
GKS Katowice 3+ goals
17%
Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
78%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
45%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)
47%
Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 20 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 1.39 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 + GKS Katowice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GKS Katowice scores more
35%
level
25%
Pogon Szczecin scores more
40%

Pogon Szczecin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. BergierGKS KatowiceGKS Katowice · F
8.9

Match Events

33'
A. Jędrych↳ M. Kuusk
53'
Adrian Błąd
54'
Valentin Cojocaru
61'
A. Gorgon← K. Łukasiak
69'
W. Lisowski← L. Koútris
69'
J. Lis← L. Wahlqvist
70'
O. Korczakowski← K. Grosicki
73'
M. Marzec← A. Czerwiński
76'
Olaf Korczakowski
79'
S. Bergier← A. Zreľák
79'
P. Paryzek← V. Bichakhchyan
85'
Sebastian Bergier
87'
Léo Borges
89'
B. Jaroszek← M. Wasielewski
90'
S. Bergier
90+3'
A. Gorgon
90+6'
M. Marzec↳ S. Bergier

Possession

43%GKS

Shots

15GKS

Pass accuracy

48%GKS

Statistics

GKSPogon
Overview
43%Possession57%
15Total Shots14
1.09Expected Goals (xG)2.29
7Corners7
8Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots14
6On Target7
7Off Target4
2Blocked3
13Inside Box10
2Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
325Total Passes450
241Accurate Passes365
74%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: GKS Katowice 3–1 Pogon Szczecin

GKS Katowice beat Pogon Szczecin 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Jędrych (33'), S. Bergier (90'), A. Gorgon (90+3'), M. Marzec (90+6').

Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.