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Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2026

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
V. Bichakhchyan 87'
E. Bitri 15' (OG)
F. Ulvestad 1'
B. Källman 3'
3/30/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 26Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Pogon Szczecin53%
×Draw22%
Cracovia Krakow25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.93
Cracovia Krakow
1.26

Pogon Szczecin creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
2.10
Cracovia Krakow
1.30

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.22
Cracovia Krakow
1.75

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.06on par
Cracovia Krakow+0.03on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
75%
Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow
78%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
47%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
30%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
85%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
57%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
30%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
72%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
36%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
68%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.22 · 24 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.10 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.30 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
53%
level
22%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
25%

Pogon Szczecin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
V. BichakhchyanPogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin · M
7.9

Match Events

1'
F. Ulvestad↳ K. Grosicki
3'
B. Källman↳ D. Ólafsson
15'
E. BitriOwn goal
41'
Rafał Kurzawa
54'
Efthymios Koulouris
59'
Adrian Przyborek
59'
J. Atanasov← P. Sokołowski
59'
O. Kakabadze← C. Râpă
65'
M. Wędrychowski← A. Przyborek
70'
P. Makuch← T. Oshima
70'
M. Rakoczy← M. Maigaard
78'
João Gamboa← A. Gorgon
84'
V. Bichakhchyan← K. Grosicki
87'
V. Bichakhchyan↳ M. Wędrychowski
88'
F. Rózga← A. Skovgaard

Possession

61%Pogon

Shots

13Pogon

Pass accuracy

54%Pogon

Statistics

PogonCracovia
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots12
1.33Expected Goals (xG)0.79
1Corners6
8Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots12
3On Target2
5Off Target7
5Blocked3
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
559Total Passes343
489Accurate Passes254
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Cracovia Krakow

Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 30, 2024.

Goals: F. Ulvestad (1'), B. Källman (3'), E. Bitri (15' o.g.), V. Bichakhchyan (87').

Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.