Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 26+ matches
Cracovia Krakow40%
Pogon Szczecin34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cracovia Krakow creates 12% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cracovia Krakow ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 26 matches
Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cracovia Krakow attack 1.30 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40
Pogon Szczecin attack 1.30 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Cracovia Krakow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Pogon Szczecin substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla PlockPogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia Gdansk
Motor Lublin
Widzew ŁódźCracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cracovia Krakow host Pogon Szczecin on Saturday, 14 September 2024 at 15:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 14, 2024.
Goals: M. Maigaard (20'), Léo Borges (72'), V. Ghiță (90').
Pogon Szczecin controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 18.
The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.