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Pogoń Szczecin U18 vs Gwarek Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Pogoń Szczecin U18
Pogoń Szczecin U18
FT
1 – 0
Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
10/17/2020Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin U1867%
×Draw17%
Gwarek Zabrze U1816%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.71
Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.26

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.59
Gwarek Zabrze U18
0.90

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.62
Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.83

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par
Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin U18 ↓

Gwarek Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin U18 or draw
84%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 or Gwarek Zabrze U18
83%
Draw or Gwarek Zabrze U18
33%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+
46%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals
93%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals
75%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals
50%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
72%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
36%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)
81%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Gwarek Zabrze U18 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 2.59 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.71

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 0.90 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more
67%
level
17%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
16%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Pogoń Szczecin U18 1–0 Gwarek Zabrze U18

Pogoń Szczecin U18 beat Gwarek Zabrze U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on October 17, 2020.