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Gwarek Zabrze U18 vs Pogoń Szczecin U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Pogoń Szczecin U18
Pogoń Szczecin U18
4/30/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gwarek Zabrze U1826%
×Draw20%
Pogoń Szczecin U1853%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.52
Pogoń Szczecin U18
2.22

Pogoń Szczecin U18 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.37
Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.92

allows per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.53
Pogoń Szczecin U18
1.68

finishing

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin U18+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Zabrze U18 ↓

Pogoń Szczecin U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or draw
47%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 or Pogoń Szczecin U18
80%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin U18
74%

Winning margin

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
12%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
78%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
45%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
20%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 2+ goals
65%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
33%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.53 · 30 matches

Pogoń Szczecin U18 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 1.37 + Pogoń Szczecin U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pogoń Szczecin U18 attack 1.92 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
26%
level
20%
Pogoń Szczecin U18 scores more
53%

Pogoń Szczecin U18 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Gwarek Zabrze U18 1–4 Pogoń Szczecin U18

Pogoń Szczecin U18 beat Gwarek Zabrze U18 4-1 in Central Youth League on April 30, 2022.