Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Legionovia Legionowo

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

12/1/2019

II Liga - East · Round 20Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce52%

×Draw23%

Legionovia Legionowo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.24

Pogoń Siedlce

1.89

Legionovia Legionowo

1.24

Pogoń Siedlce creates 52% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Legionovia Legionowo

1.06

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Legionovia Legionowo

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

75%

Pogoń Siedlce or Legionovia Legionowo

77%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

48%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

30%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

85%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

56%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

29%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

71%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

35%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

68%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

52%

level

23%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

25%

Pogoń Siedlce at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff