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Legionovia Legionowo vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
8/10/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo31%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Siedlce43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.23
Pogoń Siedlce
1.50

Pogoń Siedlce creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
57%
Legionovia Legionowo or Pogoń Siedlce
75%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
69%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
13%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
71%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
35%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
13%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
78%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
44%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
42%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
31%
level
25%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
43%

Pogoń Siedlce at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Legionovia Legionowo vs Pogoń Siedlce

Pogoń Siedlce beat Legionovia Legionowo 3-1 in II Liga - East on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.