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Pogoń Siedlce vs ŁKS Łódź II — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
7/21/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce45%
×Draw25%
ŁKS Łódź II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.58
ŁKS Łódź II
1.23

Pogoń Siedlce creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.48
ŁKS Łódź II
1.04

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.42
ŁKS Łódź II
1.69

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
70%
Pogoń Siedlce or ŁKS Łódź II
75%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź II
55%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
23%
ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
79%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
47%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
21%
ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
71%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
35%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
60%
ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.04 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
45%
level
25%
ŁKS Łódź II scores more
30%

Pogoń Siedlce at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs ŁKS Łódź II

Pogoń Siedlce and ŁKS Łódź II drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.