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ŁKS Łódź II vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
11/20/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II37%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Siedlce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.45
Pogoń Siedlce
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.31
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
61%
ŁKS Łódź II or Pogoń Siedlce
75%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
63%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
17%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
77%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
42%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
18%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
78%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
44%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
49%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
37%
level
25%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
39%

Pogoń Siedlce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź II vs Pogoń Siedlce

Pogoń Siedlce beat ŁKS Łódź II 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.