Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Hutnik Kraków: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hutnik Kraków

5/13/2023

II Liga - East · Round 31Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce45%

×Draw25%

Hutnik Kraków30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchHutnik Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.23

Pogoń Siedlce

1.57

Hutnik Kraków

1.23

Pogoń Siedlce creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 102 away

1.48

creates per match

1.04

1.42

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Hutnik Kraków

1.04

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Hutnik Kraków

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Hutnik Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

70%

Pogoń Siedlce or Hutnik Kraków

75%

Draw or Hutnik Kraków

55%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

23%

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

79%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

46%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

21%

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

71%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

35%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

60%

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.04 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

45%

level

25%

Hutnik Kraków scores more

30%

Pogoń Siedlce at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff