Hutnik Kraków 0–0 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Hutnik Kraków

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pogoń Siedlce

10/8/2022

II Liga - East · Round 14Stadion Suche Stawy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Hutnik Kraków41%

×Draw24%

Pogoń Siedlce35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hutnik KrakówExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.42

Hutnik Kraków

1.56

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Hutnik Kraków creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

1.55

creates per match

1.52

1.32

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.55

Pogoń Siedlce

1.52

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków

1.32

Pogoń Siedlce

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw

65%

Hutnik Kraków or Pogoń Siedlce

76%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

59%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+

20%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals

79%

Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals

46%

Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals

21%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

76%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

41%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)

54%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 103 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.55 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Hutnik Kraków defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more

41%

level

24%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

35%

Hutnik Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff