Pogoń Siedlce 2–3 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chojniczanka Chojnice

5/18/2024

II Liga - East · Round 33Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce35%

×Draw25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchChojniczanka Chojnice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Pogoń Siedlce

1.35

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 87 away

1.48

creates per match

1.45

1.42

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.45

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Chojniczanka Chojnice

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

61%

Pogoń Siedlce or Chojniczanka Chojnice

75%

Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice

65%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

16%

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

74%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

39%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

15%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals

76%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals

42%

Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

47%

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

35%

level

25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more

39%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff