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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
9/26/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice49%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Siedlce27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.75
Pogoń Siedlce
1.25

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 40% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
73%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Pogoń Siedlce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
51%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
27%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
83%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
52%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
25%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
71%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
36%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
64%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
49%
level
24%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
27%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Pogoń Siedlce

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Pogoń Siedlce 3-0 in II Liga - East on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.