Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 5–2 Luzino: Result & Stats

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Luzino

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce37%

×Draw24%

Luzino39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Nowe SkalmierzyceExpected goals in this matchLuzino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.53

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.49

Luzino

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

1.27

creates per match

1.68

1.39

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.27

Luzino

1.68

allows per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.39

Luzino

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Luzino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ↓

Luzino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or draw

61%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or Luzino

76%

Draw or Luzino

63%

Winning margin

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+

18%

Luzino wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals

77%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals

44%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals

19%

Luzino 1+ goals

78%

Luzino 2+ goals

45%

Luzino 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)

49%

Luzino (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Luzino away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.27 + Luzino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.49

Luzino attack 1.68 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more

37%

level

24%

Luzino scores more

39%

Luzino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luzino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff