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Luzino vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Luzino
Luzino
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
5/24/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Boisko za płytą główną GOSRiT Luzino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Luzino43%
×Draw23%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzino
1.74
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.50

Luzino creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

creates per match

Luzino
2.12
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.55

allows per match

Luzino
1.44
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.36

finishing

Luzino+0.00on par
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzino ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Luzino or draw
67%
Luzino or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
77%
Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
57%

Winning margin

Luzino wins by 2+
23%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Luzino 1+ goals
82%
Luzino 2+ goals
52%
Luzino 3+ goals
25%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
78%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
44%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luzino (draw refunded)
57%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzino at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzino attack 2.12 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.74

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Luzino defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luzino scores more
43%
level
23%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
33%

Luzino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luzino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzino vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Luzino beat Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Boisko za płytą główną GOSRiT Luzino in Luzino.