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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
1 – 0
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
3/18/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki72%
×Draw16%
Pilica Białobrzegi12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.59
Pilica Białobrzegi
0.97

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 167% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
88%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Pilica Białobrzegi
84%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
28%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
50%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
92%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
73%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
47%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
62%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
25%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
86%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.59

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
72%
level
16%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
12%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–0 Pilica Białobrzegi

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Pilica Białobrzegi 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.