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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
1 – 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
8/17/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi28%
×Draw22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.42
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.93

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
51%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
78%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
72%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
13%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
76%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
41%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
17%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
85%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
57%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
37%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
28%
level
22%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
49%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pilica Białobrzegi vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pilica Białobrzegi and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.