Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Legionovia Legionowo

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

FT

1 – 1

Legionovia Legionowo

9/17/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki58%

×Draw20%

Legionovia Legionowo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchLegionovia Legionowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.25

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.19

Legionovia Legionowo

1.25

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 75% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

2.75

creates per match

1.69

0.81

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.75

Legionovia Legionowo

1.69

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

0.81

Legionovia Legionowo

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw

79%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Legionovia Legionowo

80%

Draw or Legionovia Legionowo

42%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

36%

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

89%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

64%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

37%

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

71%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

36%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

73%

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.19

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

58%

level

20%

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff