Legionovia Legionowo 3–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Legionovia Legionowo

FT

3 – 1

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

5/22/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo38%

×Draw23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legionovia LegionowoExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.70

Legionovia Legionowo

1.65

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

2.14

1.26

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo

2.00

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.14

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo

1.26

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw

60%

Legionovia Legionowo or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

77%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

62%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+

19%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals

81%

Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals

49%

Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals

23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

82%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

51%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)

49%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more

38%

level

23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

40%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff