Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Garbarnia Kraków

4/27/2022

II Liga - East · Round 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki42%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.31

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.51

Garbarnia Kraków

1.31

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

1.55

creates per match

1.28

1.33

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.55

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.33

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw

67%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

58%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

21%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

78%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

44%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

19%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

73%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

38%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

56%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

42%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

33%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff