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Garbarnia Kraków vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
10/16/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków41%
×Draw25%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.35

Garbarnia Kraków creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.44

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
66%
Garbarnia Kraków or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
75%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
59%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
78%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
44%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
19%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
74%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
39%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
54%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.29 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
41%
level
25%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
34%

Garbarnia Kraków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 2–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Garbarnia Kraków beat Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.