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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
15 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
5/15/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki74%
×Draw15%
Concordia Elbląg11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.66
Concordia Elbląg
0.93

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 186% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Concordia Elbląg
85%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
26%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
52%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
93%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
74%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
49%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
61%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
24%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
87%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.66

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
74%
level
15%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
11%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Concordia Elbląg

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Concordia Elbląg 15-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.