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Concordia Elbląg vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
1 – 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
3/27/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg28%
×Draw23%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.79

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
51%
Concordia Elbląg or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
77%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
72%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
12%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
72%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
37%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
14%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
83%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
53%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
36%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
28%
level
23%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
49%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia Elbląg vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Concordia Elbląg and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.