Podunavac vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Podunavac51%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Podunavac creates 58% more chances
Season form · 45 home / 78 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Podunavac ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Podunavac attack 1.38 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Podunavac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Železničar Pančevo
Bačka 1901
Radnički Zrenjanin
OFK Vršac
Dinamo Pančevo
Radnički Sombor
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FK Becej
Omladinac NB
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1. Maj Ruma
Borac Sakule
Vojvodina 1928
Kozara
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Dunav Stari BanovciIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Podunavac host Jedinstvo Stara Pazova on Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 14:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Podunavac 0–3 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Podunavac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 30, 2023.
The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.