Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 0–1 Podunavac

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FT

0 – 1

Podunavac

10/8/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 9Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova42%

×Draw27%

Podunavac32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo Stara PazovaExpected goals in this matchPodunavac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.14

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.35

Podunavac

1.14

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

1.38

creates per match

1.23

1.04

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.38

Podunavac

1.23

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.04

Podunavac

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Podunavac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw

68%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Podunavac

73%

Draw or Podunavac

58%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

19%

Podunavac wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

74%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

39%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

15%

Podunavac 1+ goals

68%

Podunavac 2+ goals

32%

Podunavac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

57%

Podunavac (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

42%

level

27%

Podunavac scores more

32%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff