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Podunavac vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Podunavac
Podunavac
FT
0 – 1
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
10/30/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podunavac49%
×Draw25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podunavac
1.57
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.08

Podunavac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Podunavac
1.38
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Podunavac
0.98
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw
74%
Podunavac or Hajduk 1912 Kula
75%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
51%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals
79%
Podunavac 2+ goals
46%
Podunavac 3+ goals
21%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
66%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
29%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)
65%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Podunavac scores more
49%
level
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
26%

Podunavac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podunavac vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Podunavac 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.