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Hajduk 1912 Kula vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
FT
2 – 2
Podunavac
Podunavac
3/30/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula42%
×Draw26%
Podunavac32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.47
Podunavac
1.25

Hajduk 1912 Kula creates 18% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.61
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.28
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk 1912 Kula ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hajduk 1912 Kula or draw
68%
Hajduk 1912 Kula or Podunavac
74%
Draw or Podunavac
58%

Winning margin

Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
20%
Podunavac wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
77%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
43%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
18%
Podunavac 1+ goals
71%
Podunavac 2+ goals
36%
Podunavac 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
57%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk 1912 Kula at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.61 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
42%
level
26%
Podunavac scores more
32%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Hajduk 1912 Kula 2–2 Podunavac

Hajduk 1912 Kula and Podunavac drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Milan Sredanović in Kula.