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Podunavac vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Podunavac
Podunavac
FT
1 – 0
FK Becej
FK Becej
8/27/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podunavac57%
×Draw22%
FK Becej21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podunavac
1.94
FK Becej
1.07

Podunavac creates 81% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Podunavac
1.38
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Podunavac
0.98
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw
79%
Podunavac or FK Becej
78%
Draw or FK Becej
43%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+
34%
FK Becej wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals
86%
Podunavac 2+ goals
58%
Podunavac 3+ goals
30%
FK Becej 1+ goals
66%
FK Becej 2+ goals
29%
FK Becej 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)
74%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.94

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Podunavac scores more
57%
level
22%
FK Becej scores more
21%

Podunavac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podunavac vs FK Becej

Podunavac beat FK Becej 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.