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FK Becej vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
0 – 1
Podunavac
Podunavac
3/16/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Gradski stadion kraj Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Becej40%
×Draw25%
Podunavac35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.50
Podunavac
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.69
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

FK Becej
1.56
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
65%
FK Becej or Podunavac
75%
Draw or Podunavac
60%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
19%
Podunavac wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
78%
FK Becej 2+ goals
44%
FK Becej 3+ goals
19%
Podunavac 1+ goals
75%
Podunavac 2+ goals
41%
Podunavac 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
53%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.69 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Podunavac attack 1.23 + FK Becej defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Becej scores more
40%
level
25%
Podunavac scores more
35%

FK Becej at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Podunavac

Podunavac beat FK Becej 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise in Bečej.