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Podrinje Janja vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
1 – 2
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
9/12/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 6Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Podrinje Janja60%
×Draw21%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
2.01
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.04

Podrinje Janja creates 93% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
81%
Podrinje Janja or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
79%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
40%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
36%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
87%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
59%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
32%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
65%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
28%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
76%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.01

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
60%
level
21%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
19%

Podrinje Janja at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Podrinje Janja 1–2 FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FK Jedinstvo Brcko beat Podrinje Janja 2-1 in 1st League - RS on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.