FK Jedinstvo Brcko 0–1 Podrinje Janja

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

FT

0 – 1

Podrinje Janja

10/5/2019

1st League - RS · RS - 9Stadion FK Jedinstvo (Brčko)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko50%

×Draw24%

Podrinje Janja27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Jedinstvo BrckoExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.73

Podrinje Janja

1.20

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 54 away

1.05

creates per match

0.80

1.59

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.05

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

1.59

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw

73%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Podrinje Janja

76%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

50%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

27%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

82%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

52%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

25%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

70%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

34%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

65%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

50%

level

24%

Podrinje Janja scores more

27%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff