Podrinje Janja 2–1 Borac Kozarska Dubica

Podrinje Janja

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Borac Kozarska Dubica

4/23/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 24Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja52%

×Draw25%

Borac Kozarska Dubica23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Podrinje JanjaExpected goals in this matchBorac Kozarska Dubica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.99

Podrinje Janja

1.63

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.99

Podrinje Janja creates 65% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 64 away

0.92

creates per match

0.75

1.23

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Podrinje Janja

0.92

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.75

allows per match

Podrinje Janja

1.23

Borac Kozarska Dubica

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw

77%

Podrinje Janja or Borac Kozarska Dubica

75%

Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica

48%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

28%

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

80%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

48%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

22%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

63%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

26%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

69%

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more

52%

level

25%

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

23%

Podrinje Janja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Podrinje Janja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff