Borac Kozarska Dubica 2–1 Podrinje Janja

Borac Kozarska Dubica

FT

2 – 1

Podrinje Janja

9/5/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 5Stadion Đolovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica55%

×Draw23%

Podrinje Janja22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac Kozarska DubicaExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.05

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.82

Podrinje Janja

1.05

Borac Kozarska Dubica creates 73% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 54 away

1.23

creates per match

0.80

1.30

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.23

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Borac Kozarska Dubica

1.30

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Kozarska Dubica ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Borac Kozarska Dubica or draw

78%

Borac Kozarska Dubica or Podrinje Janja

77%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

45%

Winning margin

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

31%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

84%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

54%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

27%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

65%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

28%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

72%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Kozarska Dubica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 1.23 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.82

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

55%

level

23%

Podrinje Janja scores more

22%

Borac Kozarska Dubica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borac Kozarska Dubica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff