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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Lublinianka — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
5 – 2
Lublinianka
Lublinianka
5/27/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska63%
×Draw18%
Lublinianka19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2.65
Lublinianka
1.43

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 85% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 16 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Lublinianka
1.56

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Lublinianka
3.56

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Lublinianka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
81%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Lublinianka
82%
Draw or Lublinianka
37%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
42%
Lublinianka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
93%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
74%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
48%
Lublinianka 1+ goals
76%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
42%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
76%
Lublinianka (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.65

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
63%
level
18%
Lublinianka scores more
19%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 5–2 Lublinianka

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Lublinianka 5-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.